Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said his government examined the possibility of US military action against Canada, describing it as an “extreme tail risk” while stressing that Ottawa does not regard such a scenario as its base case. Carney made the remarks in an interview with The New York Times published Wednesday, as relations between Ottawa and Washington remain strained by a worsening trade dispute.
Asked whether he took President Donald Trump’s repeated comments about making Canada the 51st US state seriously, Carney said governments have a responsibility to prepare for unlikely but potentially severe outcomes. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.
Carney declined to disclose details of what the examination involved. The Canadian Press reported that Trump had previously ruled out using military force to annex Canada, although he has spoken about using economic pressure to pursue his objective of bringing the country closer to the United States.
Carney says Trump contact continues
Despite the deterioration in bilateral relations, Carney said he remains in frequent contact with Trump, including conversations since trade negotiations collapsed in August. “From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said.
The comments come as Ottawa works to reduce its economic and strategic dependence on Washington. Carney said Canada was examining alternatives to US-linked technologies and defence equipment, including Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network and its planned acquisition of 88 US-made F-35 fighter jets.
The F-35 programme remains under political review by the Canadian government, according to Canadian Press reporting.
Ottawa seeks wider economic and strategic options
Carney also outlined a broader diversification strategy, saying Canada wants to deepen economic relationships with countries beyond the United States, including China. However, he distinguished economic diversification from defence cooperation, ruling out closer military ties with Beijing.
The shift follows the breakdown of US-Canada trade negotiations in August. According to Canadian Press, Washington subsequently imposed 50 per cent duties on $28 billion in Canadian goods, while Ottawa introduced retaliatory tariffs in September.
Carney nevertheless said he believes there remains scope for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington. He pointed to Canadian potash, a major source of US imports of the fertiliser ingredient, as one potential area for cooperation.
The Canadian prime minister said Ottawa would continue pursuing greater economic and strategic diversification even under a future US administration, arguing that reducing dependence on a single partner would give Canada more options in managing its relationship with Washington.
