Food price inflation is likely to climb to nearly 4% by the end of the year and exceed 6% by the middle of 2027 due to the ongoing impact of the Iran war.
Six Christmas items households should buy now to beat inflation – full list
The six Christmas items you must buy NOW to beat inflation and have a cheaper Christmas have been identified. Food price inflation is likely to climb to nearly 4% by the end of the year and exceed 6% by the middle of 2027 due to the ongoing impact of the Iran war.
The Food and Drink Federation forecast prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks in December would be 3.9% higher than the year before – down sharply from its previous forecast of nearly 10% inflation – but it said prices would continue to rise after and peak at 6.4% in July 2027.
“Food and drink manufacturers have kept food prices as low as possible during the energy shock since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz … but they can’t do this indefinitely,” FDF Chief Executive Karen Betts said.
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“Persistently higher costs of energy, logistics and packaging, compounded by this summer’s extreme heat, mean that food prices will rise this year, and we believe that rise will be sustained into 2027,” she added.
Condiments
Rick Sheepshanks, founder of Stokes Sauces, says: “Christmas shopping has a habit of creeping up on you, and it’s often the little extras that suddenly make the final food bill look a lot bigger than you expected.
“My top tip is to start a Christmas cupboard now and pick up the long-life things you know you’ll want.
“Cranberry sauce, chutneys, pickles, onion marmalade, mustard and horseradish are all good ones to look out for, as long as the best before date comfortably takes you past Christmas.”
Christmas puddings
Start shopping around for your Christmas pudding now, too. “Christmas puddings last for ages, so you can start looking for them now,” says consumer expert Martyn James.
Molly Monks, expert at Parker Walsh insolvency practitioners, says Christmas cake is also worth nabbing well in advance if you can.
“Christmas cake can last a couple of months if stored correctly, so if you spot one on the supermarket shelves, purchase it now to avoid last-minute price creep,” she says.
Yorkshire puddings
You can freeze Yorkshire puddings for up to three months, Martyn adds.
The FDF called on the government to pause plans to restrict the marketing of food classed as unhealthy and said higher payroll taxes and tighter advertising and packaging rules had added £2 billion ($2.7 billion) in costs last year.
Office for National Statistics data showed that food and drink inflation in July fell to 1.3%, its lowest since August 2024.
Advent calendars
Now is the best time to get an advent calendar bargain. Shopping experts at Idealo say September is the cheapest month for the festive buys.
The BoE forecasts that food price inflation will reach 3.5% by December while CPI will rise to 3.1%.
Alcohol
“Alcohol is worth stocking up on early,” Molly says. “It doesn’t perish, and supermarkets often run their best wine and spirits deals in the autumn to get people buying in bulk before prices creep up nearer Christmas.
“Buying a bottle or two a week from now, rather than doing one big shop in December, also helps spread the cost,” she adds.
Martyn adds: “There are some great wine club intro offers, just cancel after you’ve sampled the trial.
“Spirits are always on sale at the bigger supermarkets – often up to half off. So start stocking up now.”
Christmas decorations
September is the best time to get cheap Christmas decorations, research suggests. According to Idealo, September is the cheapest time in the run up to Christmas to buy items to decorate.
Food inflation is likely to remain significantly above historical averages in the second half of 2027, with a lower peak but longer plateau than forecast in April, the FDF said.
