The trifecta of fall festivals—Venice, Telluride, and Toronto—is over, and now there’s a much clearer picture of which films could be true Oscar contenders this year. While the March 14 Academy Awards are still months away, and much could change between now and then (just ask Emilia Pérez), there are a handful of films that feel like locks for best-picture nominations.
The biggest winner of the fall festivals was La Bola Negra, the Spanish-language Netflix drama that won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. That award has strong ties to a best-picture Oscar nomination, with past winners including Hamnet, The Fabelmans, Nomadland, Jojo Rabbit, and Green Book.
La Bola Negra, which had its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, also earned strong praise at Telluride (which doesn’t give out awards). Another Cannes holdover, Club Kid, also played well at both festivals.
Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine (which won the best-actor award for John Malkovich in Venice) and Jesse Eisenberg’s musical theater dramedy The Debut, which featured a formidable performance by Julianne Moore, will also likely be strong contenders once they’re released to wider audiences.
Two TIFF debuts played well, but remain on the bubble for now. I Play Rocky and Being Heumann placed second and third for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, and could become strong Oscar contenders as crowd-pleasing movies. Last year, Frankenstein got second and ended up with a best-picture nomination, and Anora (the eventual best-picture winner) got third in 2024.
On this week’s episode of Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair’s John Ross, Hillary Busis, and Rebecca Ford discover that they agree on seven films that feel like best-picture Oscar locks at this moment: The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three, La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, The Debut, The Invite, and Wild Horse Nine.
The remaining three spots varied widely. Fjord, which won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, came into the fall festivals looking like a strong contender, but attendees on the ground seemed mixed about the film, which followes a religious family in Norway that comes under scrutiny, and its polarizing message. Possible Love, a Korean drama directed by Lee Chang-dong, won the Grand Jury Prize at Venice after a very strong premiere, which could make it a possible contender for an Academy that is increasingly international.
Behemoth!, a drama starring Pedro Pascal as a classical cellist, will have its world premiere at the New York Film Festival, where it could become a best-picture contender if it garners a strong reception. And also at New York, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary You Can See Everything, on Elizabeth Holmes, will play after its surprise screening at Telluride, which generated a ton of buzz. And it could possibly make history: No documentary has ever been nominated for best picture.
